Lionel Messi is once again the man to beat. After inspiring Argentina to a dramatic semi-final victory over England, prediction markets have placed him at the front of the queue for a record ninth Ballon d’Or.
What the numbers say
Polymarket Sports currently assigns Messi a 31.7% probability of claiming the 2026 Ballon d’Or — the highest figure among all contenders. No other player comes close at this stage of the tournament. The market moved sharply in his favour following Argentina’s comeback win over England, a result that sent La Albiceleste into their second consecutive World Cup final.
The performance underlined something that keeps defying expectation: at an age when most footballers are long retired, Messi continues to shape the biggest matches in the sport.
The weight of history
Messi last won the Ballon d’Or in 2023, an award earned on the back of Argentina’s World Cup triumph in Qatar — their first in 36 years. That victory settled, for most serious observers, the long-running debate about his place in the game’s history. A ninth award would make that case unanswerable.
The 2026 tournament is hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Argentina’s path to the final has already featured a Messi hat-trick against Algeria in the group stage — a performance that itself prompted the Ballon d’Or organisers to issue a public statement clarifying that winning the World Cup alone does not automatically guarantee the Golden Ball.
What happens next
The final awaits. Argentina’s opponents are yet to be confirmed, but Messi’s case for the Ballon d’Or will be decided not just by what happens in that match, but by how the full tournament is assessed. Prediction markets, however, have already made their call. Whether the Ballon d’Or panel agrees will depend on what unfolds in the days ahead — but right now, the 39-year-old from Rosario is leading every race that matters.